Early diagnostic indicators of dengue versus other febrile illnesses in Asia and Latin America (IDAMS study): a multicentre, prospective, observational study.

BACKGROUND: Improvements in the early diagnosis of dengue are urgently needed, especially in resource-limited settings where the distinction between dengue and other febrile illnesses is crucial for patient management. METHODS: In this prospective, observational study (IDAMS), we included patients aged 5 years and older with undifferentiated fever at presentation from 26 outpatient facilities in eight countries (Bangladesh, Brazil, Cambodia, El Salvador, Indonesia, Malaysia, Venezuela, and Viet Nam). We used multivariable logistic regression to investigate the association between clinical symptoms and laboratory tests with dengue versus other febrile illnesses between day 2 and day 5 after onset of fever (ie, illness days). We built a set of candidate regression models including clinical and laboratory variables to reflect the need of a comprehensive versus parsimonious approach. We assessed performance of these models via standard measures of diagnostic values. FINDINGS: Between Oct 18, 2011, and Aug 4, 2016, we recruited 7428 patients, of whom 2694 (36%) were diagnosed with laboratory-confirmed dengue and 2495 (34%) with (non-dengue) other febrile illnesses and met inclusion criteria, and were included in the analysis. 2703 (52%) of 5189 included patients were younger than 15 years, 2486 (48%) were aged 15 years or older, 2179 (42%) were female and 3010 (58%) were male. Platelet count, white blood cell count, and the change in these variables from the previous day of illness had a strong association with dengue. Cough and rhinitis had strong associations with other febrile illnesses, whereas bleeding, anorexia, and skin flush were generally associated with dengue. Model performance increased between day 2 and 5 of illness. The comprehensive model (18 clinical and laboratory predictors) had sensitivities of 0·80 to 0·87 and specificities of 0·80 to 0·91, whereas the parsimonious model (eight clinical and laboratory predictors) had sensitivities of 0·80 to 0·88 and specificities of 0·81 to 0·89. A model that includes laboratory markers that are easy to measure (eg, platelet count or white blood cell count) outperformed the models based on clinical variables only. INTERPRETATION: Our results confirm the important role of platelet and white blood cell counts in diagnosing dengue, and the importance of serial measurements over subsequent days. We successfully quantified the performance of clinical and laboratory markers covering the early period of dengue. Resulting algorithms performed better than published schemes for distinction of dengue from other febrile illnesses, and take into account the dynamic changes over time. Our results provide crucial information needed for the update of guidelines, including the Integrated Management of Childhood Illness handbook. FUNDING: EU's Seventh Framework Programme. TRANSLATIONS: For the Bangla, Bahasa Indonesia, Portuguese, Khmer, Spanish and Vietnamese translations of the abstract see Supplementary Materials section.

Dengue algorithms integrated into the IMCI guidelines: An updated assessment in five Southeast-Asian countries.

BACKGROUND: Dengue is not included explicitly in the WHO Integrated Management of Childhood Illness (IMCI) algorithm. However, the assessment, classification and management of dengue has been incorporated into several IMCI country adaptations. We aimed to evaluate the dengue algorithms incorporated into IMCI guidelines and discuss the need for harmonization, including an extension of the age range for IMCI. METHODS: This study included three steps. First, we investigated dengue algorithms incorporated into five Southeast-Asian (Myanmar, Philippines, Vietnam, Indonesia, Cambodia) country IMCI guidelines through a desk-based analysis. Second, we conducted an expert survey to elicit opinions regarding the integration of dengue and extension of the age range in IMCI. Third, we compared our findings with data from a large multicentric prospective study on acute febrile illness. RESULTS: We found considerable heterogeneity between the country specific IMCI guidelines in the dengue algorithms as well as classification schemes. Most guidelines did not differentiate between diagnostic algorithms for the detection of dengue versus other febrile illness, and warning signs for progression to severe dengue. Our expert survey resulted in a consensus to further integrate dengue in IMCI and extend the age range for IMCI guidelines beyond 5 years of age. Most of the interviewees responded that their country had a stand-alone clinical guideline for dengue, which was not integrated into the IMCI approach and considered laboratory testing for dengue necessary on day three of consecutive fever. Using data from a large multicentric study of children 5-15 years of age, we could confirm that the likelihood of dengue increased with consecutive fever days. However, a significant proportion of children (36%) would be missed if laboratory testing was only offered on the third consecutive day of fever. CONCLUSIONS: This study supports the extension of the IMCI age range beyond 5 years of age as well as the inclusion of dengue relevant content in the algorithm. Because of the challenge of distinguishing dengue from other febrile illnesses, simple laboratory testing (e.g., full blood count) should be offered at an early stage during the course of the illness. Testing only children with consecutive fever over 3 days may lead to an underdiagnosis of dengue among those with acute febrile illness in children 5-15 years of age. In addition, specific laboratory testing for dengue should be made available to peripheral health facilities.

Combination of inflammatory and vascular markers in the febrile phase of dengue is associated with more severe outcomes.

Background: Early identification of severe dengue patients is important regarding patient management and resource allocation. We investigated the association of 10 biomarkers (VCAM-1, SDC-1, Ang-2, IL-8, IP-10, IL-1RA, sCD163, sTREM-1, ferritin, CRP) with the development of severe/moderate dengue (S/MD). Methods: We performed a nested case-control study from a multi-country study. A total of 281 S/MD and 556 uncomplicated dengue cases were included. Results: On days 1-3 from symptom onset, higher levels of any biomarker increased the risk of developing S/MD. When assessing together, SDC-1 and IL-1RA were stable, while IP-10 changed the association from positive to negative; others showed weaker associations. The best combinations associated with S/MD comprised IL-1RA, Ang-2, IL-8, ferritin, IP-10, and SDC-1 for children, and SDC-1, IL-8, ferritin, sTREM-1, IL-1RA, IP-10, and sCD163 for adults. Conclusions: Our findings assist the development of biomarker panels for clinical use and could improve triage and risk prediction in dengue patients. Funding: This study was supported by the EU's Seventh Framework Programme (FP7-281803 IDAMS), the WHO, and the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation.

Diagnostic performance of anti-Zika virus IgM, IgAM and IgG ELISAs during co-circulation of Zika, dengue, and chikungunya viruses in Brazil and Venezuela.

BACKGROUND: Serological diagnosis of Zika virus (ZIKV) infection is challenging because of the antibody cross-reactivity among flaviviruses. At the same time, the role of Nucleic Acid Testing (NAT) is limited by the low proportion of symptomatic infections and the low average viral load. Here, we compared the diagnostic performance of commercially available IgM, IgAM, and IgG ELISAs in sequential samples during the ZIKV and chikungunya (CHIKV) epidemics and co-circulation of dengue virus (DENV) in Brazil and Venezuela. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Acute (day of illness 1-5) and follow-up (day of illness ≥ 6) blood samples were collected from nine hundred and seven symptomatic patients enrolled in a prospective multicenter study between June 2012 and August 2016. Acute samples were tested by RT-PCR for ZIKV, DENV, and CHIKV. Acute and follow-up samples were tested for IgM, IgAM, and IgG antibodies to ZIKV using commercially available ELISAs. Among follow-up samples with a RT-PCR confirmed ZIKV infection, anti-ZIKV IgAM sensitivity was 93.5% (43/46), while IgM and IgG exhibited sensitivities of 30.3% (10/33) and 72% (18/25), respectively. An additional 24% (26/109) of ZIKV infections were detected via IgAM seroconversion in ZIKV/DENV/CHIKV RT-PCR negative patients. The specificity of anti-ZIKV IgM was estimated at 93% and that of IgAM at 85%. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Our findings exemplify the challenges of the assessment of test performance for ZIKV serological tests in the real-world setting, during co-circulation of DENV, ZIKV, and CHIKV. However, we can also demonstrate that the IgAM immunoassay exhibits superior sensitivity to detect ZIKV RT-PCR confirmed infections compared to IgG and IgM immunoassays. The IgAM assay also proves to be promising for detection of anti-ZIKV seroconversions in sequential samples, both in ZIKV PCR-positive as well as PCR-negative patients, making this a candidate assay for serological monitoring of pregnant women in future ZIKV outbreaks.

Zika virus infection in pregnancy: a protocol for the joint analysis of the prospective cohort studies of the ZIKAlliance, ZikaPLAN and ZIKAction consortia.

INTRODUCTION: Zika virus (ZIKV) infection in pregnancy has been associated with microcephaly and severe neurological damage to the fetus. Our aim is to document the risks of adverse pregnancy and birth outcomes and the prevalence of laboratory markers of congenital infection in deliveries to women experiencing ZIKV infection during pregnancy, using data from European Commission-funded prospective cohort studies in 20 centres in 11 countries across Latin America and the Caribbean. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: We will carry out a centre-by-centre analysis of the risks of adverse pregnancy and birth outcomes, comparing women with confirmed and suspected ZIKV infection in pregnancy to those with no evidence of infection in pregnancy. We will document the proportion of deliveries in which laboratory markers of congenital infection were present. Finally, we will investigate the associations of trimester of maternal infection in pregnancy, presence or absence of maternal symptoms of acute ZIKV infection and previous flavivirus infections with adverse outcomes and with markers of congenital infection. Centre-specific estimates will be pooled using a two-stage approach. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: Ethical approval was obtained at each centre. Findings will be presented at international conferences and published in peer-reviewed open access journals and discussed with local public health officials and representatives of the national Ministries of Health, Pan American Health Organization and WHO involved with ZIKV prevention and control activities.

Severe dengue categories as research endpoints-Results from a prospective observational study in hospitalised dengue patients.

Severe dengue was perceived as one clinical disease entity until the WHO 2009 classification stratified it into severe vascular leakage, severe bleeding, and severe organ dysfunction. The objectives of this study were to investigate the potential use of severe dengue categories as endpoints for intervention research. 271 patients with severe dengue among 1734 confirmed dengue patients were followed prospectively in this hospital-based observational study in Latin America and Asia. We compared the distribution of severe dengue categories according to gender and age (below/above 15y), and determined the relative frequency and the overlap of severe dengue categories in the same patients. In a next step, we extended the analysis to candidate moderate severity categories, based on recently suggested definitions which were adapted for our purposes. Severe vascular leakage occurred in 244 (90%), severe bleeding in 39 (14%), and severe organ dysfunction in 28 (10%) of 271 severe dengue patients. A higher frequency of severe leakage was seen in children or adolescents (<15y) compared to adults. More than 80% of the severe leakage cases, and 30-50% of the cases with severe bleeding or severe organ dysfunction, were defined as severe on the basis of that feature alone. In 136 out of 213 patients with severe leakage alone, neither moderate bleeding manifestation nor hepatic involvement was recorded. On the other hand, moderate leakage manifestations were detected in 4 out of 12 cases that were classified as severe based on bleeding alone. A major proportion of severe dengue patients exhibited clinical manifestations of severe vascular leakage only, which may constitute a useful endpoint for intervention research or pathophysiology studies. Severe bleeding and severe organ manifestation were recorded less frequently and exhibited a higher degree of overlap with severe leakage. Severe bleeding without leakage may be associated with individual predisposition or the presence of comorbidities. More detailed assessments are needed to explore this hypothesis. Candidate moderate disease endpoints were investigated and need to be further validated.

Study protocol for the multicentre cohorts of Zika virus infection in pregnant women, infants, and acute clinical cases in Latin America and the Caribbean: the ZIKAlliance consortium.

BACKGROUND: The European Commission (EC) Horizon 2020 (H2020)-funded ZIKAlliance Consortium designed a multicentre study including pregnant women (PW), children (CH) and natural history (NH) cohorts. Clinical sites were selected over a wide geographic range within Latin America and the Caribbean, taking into account the dynamic course of the ZIKV epidemic. METHODS: Recruitment to the PW cohort will take place in antenatal care clinics. PW will be enrolled regardless of symptoms and followed over the course of pregnancy, approximately every 4 weeks. PW will be revisited at delivery (or after miscarriage/abortion) to assess birth outcomes, including microcephaly and other congenital abnormalities according to the evolving definition of congenital Zika syndrome (CZS). After birth, children will be followed for 2 years in the CH cohort. Follow-up visits are scheduled at ages 1-3, 4-6, 12, and 24 months to assess neurocognitive and developmental milestones. In addition, a NH cohort for the characterization of symptomatic rash/fever illness was designed, including follow-up to capture persisting health problems. Blood, urine, and other biological materials will be collected, and tested for ZIKV and other relevant arboviral diseases (dengue, chikungunya, yellow fever) using RT-PCR or serological methods. A virtual, decentralized biobank will be created. Reciprocal clinical monitoring has been established between partner sites. Substudies of ZIKV seroprevalence, transmission clustering, disabilities and health economics, viral kinetics, the potential role of antibody enhancement, and co-infections will be linked to the cohort studies. DISCUSSION: Results of these large cohort studies will provide better risk estimates for birth defects and other developmental abnormalities associated with ZIKV infection including possible co-factors for the variability of risk estimates between other countries and regions. Additional outcomes include incidence and transmission estimates of ZIKV during and after pregnancy, characterization of short and long-term clinical course following infection and viral kinetics of ZIKV. STUDY REGISTRATIONS: clinicaltrials.gov NCT03188731 (PW cohort), June 15, 2017; clinicaltrials.gov NCT03393286 (CH cohort), January 8, 2018; clinicaltrials.gov NCT03204409 (NH cohort), July 2, 2017.

Zika virus displacement by a chikungunya outbreak in Recife, Brazil.

BACKGROUND: Several arboviruses, including dengue virus (DENV), Zika virus (ZIKV) and chikungunya virus (CHIKV), transmitted by Aedes mosquitoes, circulate in northeast Brazil. Diseases caused by these viruses are of great public health relevance, however, their epidemiological features in areas where the three viruses co-circulate are scarce. Here, we present analyses of molecular and serological diagnostics in a prospective study of acute febrile patients recruited from May 2015 to May 2016 in Recife, Brazil. METHODS: Two hundred sixty-three acute febrile patients with symptoms suggestive of an arboviral disease who attended an urgent heath care clinic in the Recife Metropolitan Region in northeast Brazil were enrolled. Acute and convalescent blood samples were collected and tested using molecular and serological assays for infection with DENV, ZIKV and CHIKV. RESULTS: Quantitative real-time reverse-transcriptase polymerase chain reactions (qRTPCR) performed on acute phase sera detected no patients positive for DENV, but 26 (9.9%) positive for ZIKV and 132 (50.2%) positive for CHIKV. There were a few suspected and only one confirmed dengue case. Specific serological assays for ZIKV and CHIKV confirmed the qRTPCR data. Analyses of DENV IgM and IgG ELISAs in the context of qRTPCR results suggested high levels of cross reactive antibodies in ZIKV-positive samples. Results from neutralization assays highly corroborated those from qRTPCR and ZIKV ELISA, indicating very few positive DENV cases. ZIKV infections were temporally clustered in the first months of the study and started to decrease concomitantly with an increase in CHIKV infections in August 2015. The proportion of CHIKV infections increased significantly in September 2015 and remained high until the end of the study period, with an average of 84.7% of recruited patients being diagnosed from August 2015 to May 2016. ZIKV infections exhibited a female bias and the cases were spread over the study site, while CHIKV cases had a male bias and were spatially clustered in each month. CONCLUSIONS: In 2015-2016 in the Recife Metropolitan Region, we detected the tail end of a Zika epidemic, which was displaced by a chikungunya epidemic. Few dengue cases were identified despite a high number of official dengue notifications in the area during this period. We show here important epidemiological features of these cases.

Vascular leakage in dengue--clinical spectrum and influence of parenteral fluid therapy.

OBJECTIVE: Clinical management of dengue relies on careful monitoring of fluid balance combined with judicious intravenous (IV) fluid therapy. However, in patients with significant vascular leakage, IV fluids may aggravate serosal fluid accumulation and result in respiratory distress. METHODS: Trained physicians followed suspected dengue cases prospectively at seven hospitals across Asia and Latin America, using a comprehensive case report form that included daily clinical assessment and detailed documentation of parenteral fluid therapy. Applying Cox regression, we evaluated risk factors for the development of shock or respiratory distress with fluid accumulation. RESULTS: Most confirmed dengue patients (1524/1734, 88%) never experienced dengue shock syndrome (DSS). Among those with DSS, 176/210 (84%) had fluid accumulation, and in the majority (83%), this was detectable clinically. Among all cases with clinically detectable fluid accumulation, 179/447 (40%) were diagnosed with shock or respiratory distress. The risk for respiratory distress with fluid accumulation increased significantly as the infused volume over the preceding 24 h increased (hazard ratio 1.18 per 10 ml/kg increase; P < 0.001). Longer duration of IV therapy, use of a fluid bolus in the preceding 24 h, female gender and poor nutrition also constituted independent risk factors. CONCLUSIONS: Shock and respiratory distress are relatively rare manifestations of dengue, but some evidence of fluid accumulation is seen in around 50% of cases. IV fluids play a crucial role in management, but they must be administered with caution. Clinically and/or radiologically detectable fluid accumulations have potential as intermediate severity endpoints for therapeutic intervention trials and/or pathogenesis studies.